Whether or not we’re going to go to war in a foreign country, in the Trump administration, has now become the sort of thing that some people know, and most people don’t know, and we are betting on. And then right inside of that is, well, some people know, and now they have an enormous incentive to bet on it as well. And so you see insider trading happening all over these prediction markets, and I, for the life of me, cannot tell if that is a bug or a feature.
The thing about inviting a tiger round for tea is, for all the excitement, the fur, the teeth, the muscles, they do tend to walk off with your dinner and drink all the water in the taps. The thing about saying yes to the person with the biggest stick is, in the end, you don’t get to say yes, or no, or anything at all. And that person still has a very big stick.
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The Bank of England began cutting rates in August 2024.