The AI narrative makes all of this worse. Wall Street is pricing AI as if it’s already reshaped the economy. The NBER published a surveyed in February on AI use, with data from nearly 6,000 executives across the U.S., UK, Germany, and Australia. More than 80% reported zero measurable impact of AI on productivity or employment over the past three years. AI will be transformative, but the gap between what the market is pricing in and what’s actually happening inside companies is enormous.
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